Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins Game 1 odds, picks and predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruinsmeet in Game 1 of a best-of-7 Eastern Conference 1st-round series Saturday. Puck drop from TD Garden is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Maple Leafs vs. Bruinsodds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Season series: Bruins won 4-0

The Maple Leafs face their old nemesis in the opening round of the postseason. If past history, and the regular season, is any indication, it could be another early exit for Toronto.

The Bruins swept the regular-season series, outscoring the Maple Leafs 15-7 in the 4 meetings. The past 2 games were 4-1 victories by Boston, including the most recent meeting on March 7 at TD Garden. The Under cashed in 3 of the 4 meetings this season, and it is on a 4-1 run in the past 5 in the series.

Toronto enters the postseason going 0-3-1 in the final 4 games to close out the regular season, allowing 5 or more goals in each of the contests. The Over is on a 5-0 run for the Leafs.

Boston wasn't much better, dropping the final 2 games at Washington and home to Ottawa, losing out on the Metropolitan Division title to the Florida Panthers in the process. The Under has hit in 8 of the past 9 games for the Bruins, while winning just once in the final 4 contests.

These teams have met 16 times in the Stanley Cup playoffs, with the most recent meeting in 2019. The Leafs and B's have squared off in the playoffs 4 times in the past 11 years, too.

Boston's Brad Marchand has 146 career playoff games under his belt, and he has faced the Leafs 21 times in the postseason. He has 7 goals and 14 assists, good for a point-per-game production.

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Maple Leafs at Bruins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 5:18 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Bruins -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs +1.5 (-250) | Bruins -1.5 (+190)
• Over/Under (O/U): 5.5 (O: -125 | U: +105)

Maple Leafs at Bruins projected goalies

Ilya Samsonov (23-7-8, 3.13 GAA, .890 SV%, 3 SO) vs. Linus Ullmark (22-10-7, 2.58 GAA, .915 SV%, 2 SO)

Samsonov had a topsy-turvy season. At one point, the team placed him on waivers, and he was banished to the Marlies of the AHL. He returned, and  made the most of his 2nd opportunity, although he did have a shaky finish to the regular season with 4 or more goals allowed in 3 of his final 5 outings.

He hasn't faced the Bruins since Nov. 2 in Boston, a 3-2 loss in a shootout. Samsonov was superb in that game, kicking aside 38 of the 40 shots he faced. That was his only time facing the B's this season.

Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman were in a rotation, and the tandem both figure to see action in the postseason, too. Ullmark is expected to the 1st crack at the Leafs. He allowed 3 or fewer goals in each of his final 10 regular-season starts, winning 3 of the final 4 outings.

Ullmark last saw the Maple Leafs Dec. 2 in Toronto, making 37 saves on 40 shots in a 4-3 OTW. That was his only action in the regular season against the Leafs.

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Maple Leafs at Bruins picks and predictions

Prediction

Bruins 4, Maple Leafs 3

Moneyline

The BRUINS (-125) have had this hold on the Maple Leafs (+110), and Toronto fans likely wanted to see anybody else in the 1st round. Bettors, however, have to be pleased seeing what has been an historically one-sided matchup, especially in recent postseason memory.

Toronto sports all kind of offense, going several lines deep, but the defense is just so-so, as is the goaltending. That's not a good sign for a deep run into the postseason. Boston should get off on the right foot in Game 1.

Puck line/Against the spread

The Maple Leafs +1.5 (-250) will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return if you'd like a little bit of insurance, and you just can't bring yourself to pick Toronto straight up. And you shouldn't, as the Leafs have dropped 7 straight meetings dating back to their last win against the Bruins on Nov. 5, 2022. While 4 of the past 7 losses have been by a single goal, it's too expensive to back Toronto, and too risky.

AVOID.

Over/Under

OVER 5.5 (-125) is a strong play in this series opener. Samsonov has been very giving lately. While the Under is 4-1 in the past 5 meetings in this series, we could have a higher-scoring series opener between these 2 familiar foes if we see penalties.

Toronto ranked 7th in the NHL on the power play (23.9%), while the penalty kill was just 23rd (76.9%). Boston was good for 13th on the man advantage (22.2%), while the kill checked in 7th (82.5%).

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